Iranian nuke in 4 months

[BLACK KNIGHT]

Well, the Iranian mullahs say they'll have a nuke in 4 months. They quote from the head of state was something like "We must have two bombs ready to go by January, or you are not real muslims". Sounds foreboding.
The Germans have made a fortune apparently selling all the necessary tools to Iran.
This is Iraq ala 1980's all over again.
I hope the Israelis don't feel the need to ask for Franco-Germanic permission to pre-empt this very real threat to world security.
Many of our American brethren don't seem to have the stomach for what needs to be done.

[Tom]

If I were King....I would have the most sophisticated strike force the world has ever seen. Whenever one of these countries were known to be developing a plant or facility that could build the bomb, it would be destroyed overnight, there would be no ackowlegement of the strike and no press conference. Just...gee, how about that?

[deltaflyer]

I think the B-2 might be able to do that...

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"the view I love the most is my front porch lookin' in"

[Riverman]

Or, A few F-117`s

[vonchim]

All we need to do is drop some of our new 2000 lb. nuclear bunker busters on em to show what we can do. Oh, I forgot we're still developing them.
Have you ever stopped to think they may want it as a deterrant to a large and possibly hostile nuclear power in their neighborhood, really two of them including israel. Remember we already tried to wipe em out with a surrogate many years ago.(1980-1988)
On that note, do some research on recent or upcoming arms sales to israel, including about 7500 satelite guided bombs of various sizes for practice. I guess Iran will be the target range.
I got a gun but you can't have one!

[This message has been edited by vonchim (edited 10-03-2004).]

[Tom]

I don't stay awake worrying about Israel attacking the USofA.
Perhaps we should just disarm and throw our liberties and future on the mercies of the third world nations and muslim fanatics. Would the world be at peace then?

[This message has been edited by Tom (edited 10-04-2004).]

[Grady]

So can we now add yet another reason for going to war in Iraq, i.e., as a deterrent to other bad actors, to the round file?

[Bob M]

RE Bombing the nuke, first you have to find it. I guess we can rely on some of those now world-famous intelligence assesments to do that.

My compliments to all you folks that live upwind of Atlanta, or Savanna, or Fort Benning, etc. etc. It's not difficult to see where we're driving this one.

[This message has been edited by Bob M (edited 10-04-2004).]

[Riverman]

North Korea is the on that really ...Scare`s...me.

[JOHNKIES]

Iranian Nukes? That is a "maybe" and then there is the little question of how to deliver the thing. On the other hand, North Korea has both nukes and the missles capable of delivering them. So why no interest in N. Korea by the inept Bozo in the White House? No oil in N.Korea and no fat no-bid infrastructure re-build contracts for Cheney. These two clowns have sold us down the river for a few dollars and they have no clue how to fight a terrorist war, so they just use what worked the last time .... invade Iraq!

The real enemy who attacked us is Bin Laden but because he is a Saudi and the Saudis own the Bush family, Bozo will never make more than a token effort to take him out. It's been THREE years with troops on the ground. How inept is that? Since he is failing miserably in Iraq, Bozo now is looking for someplace else to invade. "Oooooooh, scary stuff, looks like Iran has WMDs too!" Now where have we heard that before?

But for this board, I strongly recommend you review this administration's environmental record as it affects our sport. It stinks. Read the article in Fly Fishing Magazine this month. It's a good summary.

[deltaflyer]

delivery is not an issue:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&ncid=535&e=7&u=/ap/20041005/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_missile

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"the view I love the most is my front porch lookin' in"

[Bob M]

A container ship would make more sense.

Guys familiar with Stingers, Redeyes, and all the SAMS know that nothing says "I did it! Here I am!" like the exhaust trail from a missile. Two jets are real a problem; that's why the first thing you do after firing is run like heck.

Countries can't run. Anyone foolish enough to shoot at us would have to be cornered and have zero-options because the counterpunch will be unmistakable. Terrorists generally can't afford an ICBM, and countries can't just get up and run.

Container ships start looking good as delivery systems under those circumstances.

[jeffg]

BK you state the stomach for this action. Well if i may I wish to offer some food for thought on that line (sorry if this sounds like a doomsday scenario)
Stomach meaning the american people who would have to make multiple major sacrifices for us attacking Iran.
a) Lets say Isreal hits Iran with the technology supplied by the US. Other Muslim countries then see america has a partner in the war Isreal has started and therefore OPEC convenes and determines to no longer ship oil to American based corporations.
The only other reliable sources are Russina and then Venezuela, but seeing Chavez hates us, ( feeling mutual) and his alliance with Cuba means that trade with Chavez would be minimal. Putin can see this as his one chance to re-establish Russian dominance by bringing us to our knees. Everyone ships then to China and china assumes the unchallenged economic engine of the world.
b) The Strategic reserve is then called into play for what it was created for. However that means that Joe Citizen now needs to have a ration card to get his 20 gallons of gas a week, or odd even days again etc.. and that means then that the lobbiest working for the auto industry would have to get their hands out of our politicians pockets and that the industry starts shipping a higher mpg engine and smaller vehicles to insure that our supplies last even longer.
c) Our economy due to lack of oil supply tanks. This brings down the world economy
d) Since our economy tanks govt has no tax revenues, so they cant pay for the 2 country occupation ( iraq, iran) that is currently underway. So they must revoke the tax cut which leads to a lot of teeth nashing.
e) Next since we have a 140K troops in Iraq, what stops Iran from doing its wave attackes that it threw at Iraq during their 7 (or was it 10) year conflict. We have massive amount of troops but do we have enough to stop 20K people rushing over the border at us? We start using WMD to stop these attacks which further enrages the world as we appear to be hypocrits seeing we occupied a country to stop them using WMD on their own citizens.
f) Now back in America again, the draft is reinstated to be able to compensate for the loss of americans and for the fact we have a major major conflict on our hands. Seeing that the current admin has pissed off most of our allies ( and poland offering 5K, Austrailia 10K, britian 10K , Czech republic 500 etc.. ) is not enough allied troops for us to succeed. So the only way we can do this is by drafting US citizens.
g) Also back in america since our Oil supplies are kinda nixed, not only does the economy tank, but our food supplies become an issues. Since we cannot reliably ship with an now unreliable source of energy, costs of any kinda of food goes through the roof. The amount of people living below the poverty line increases dramatically, Plus the cost of oil/petroleum drives up any food we eat seeing that energy is needed to can, capture, cook, kill, plant, reap etc..

Us attacking Iran is a nasty scenario. I dont know if joe citizen has the stomache for the death of our soldiers in such a conflict, or I dont know if Joe Citizen has the stomach for the sacrifices he is going to make back here at home in order to insure we win that conflict. And I am not sure our Admin will ask people to sacrifice seeing that the current conflict american public has yet to sacrifice anything for our troops over seas..
I do agree that joe citizen may not have the stomach for it.

[Bob M]

Yep. If we start pulling stunts like that, then we shouldn't be surprised to see British nukes coming our way.

[streamKAT]

Oh cmon guys ....

If the Iranians were any where near being a threat the Israelis would have already struck them.

Israel has people on the ground and they know exactly where everything is .... just wait and see.

It's a muslim trait to talk trash to try and strike fear into an enemy.

[jeffg]

if Isreal has people who know where everything is, it would make finding the WMD that are in Iraq much easier, or the ones they moved supposedly to Syria, which supposedly have them hidden in lebanon.

And if isreal and the us have such great intelligence why is it they we had no idea N. Korea sold to Yemen 6 hulls to make SCUD missles until we boareded the ship ( this was last year)? And then we let the missles into Yemen ( which is who supplied the means to hit the Cole....)

I would think Isreal taking out the Nuke site in Iraq was is different than when they hit the one in Iran. Most of the middle east is glad Saddam is gone since he was a destabilizing force in the area. After the Iran/Iraq war ( where the US sold WMD to Iraq...hmm) and then the attack on Kuwait, and the attacks on the Kurds made Iraq the one country that if hit the neighbors wouldnt mind.
Now if Iran gets hit I would believe that Syria then would step into the Mix, along with the other countries that Iran has been funding.
Iran is hit by Isreal. Iran responds with a missle attack. Bombers resume flying into Iranian airspace, hezbollah explodes out of the Golan hieghts with missle attacks and artillery. As the opening front of the Syrian army. Isreal attempts to go into Syria, and is now fighting a 2 front war.
THe Palestinians rise up like never before specifically targetting civilians ( since anyone in isreal that is a citizen has to serve in the armed forces so therefore they can claim they are attacking military targets.)


Does Isreal nuke in response to the attacks on Isreal from multiple fronts? Does america sit quietly while the seat of christanity is destroyed in suicide bombings, artillery, missle attacks? Does our friend Jordan join into the Fray?
What about Eqypt who the US supplies money and military might too? Do they break the peace treaty signed in 74 (or 75,,) and go on the offensive across the peninsula and capturing the Suez Canal and moving onward to Isreal's southern border? WIth the canal captured, isreal needs to supplied either from sea or the air, and with Syrias and Egypts fighters / bombers both means of supply are risky.. and there would be no land route for Isreal to rcve supplies seeing all their borders would now be military zones.
Does United Emirates shake its western influences with the Dome of the Rock is now a pile of Rubble?
How does Saudi Arabia respond?

Unlike the 7 day war, this time we have armed Isreal's foes. Granted Egypt Jordan, Saudi, dont have the most modern bombs, fighter jets etc.. but they are way better armed than they were, yet Isreal possess the one great equalizer.. the nuclear bomb.
And would they use it?

I just remember sitting in the Isreali embassy listening to their Chief Ambassador discussing with us the way Isreal is. It is the size of delaware, and by the time they pick up on radar an approaching jet it has already crossed into their airspace and is almost reaching the sea. Their reaction times are so short that mistakes could be made without correct intelligence. That the Golan Heights are the key to protecting isreal, and that on a multiple front war Isreal would use everything in its power to protect itself.. that discussion was many moons ago, but the line of "use everything in our power" was stated as the US and Allies crossed to border into Kuwait and Isreal sat there taking scuds to the chin. but makes me shiver knowing that at the time the saddam went into Kuwait was the time that t was stated publicly by other nations, that Isreal had the bomb..


[This message has been edited by jeffg (edited 10-05-2004).]

[streamKAT]

They know alot more than you think; to make it apparent that you know sometimes blows the whole deal and gets your agents killed.

It's like Connery said to Costner in the untouchables 'everybody knows where it is but who is willing to do something about it ? What are you prepared to do ?'

Further, Israel knowing does not always equate to USA knowing or more relevant,acting upon it.

Syria won't do anything;nor will Egypt; they have played that game before and they know what will happen. And it won't require nukes; arab national military efficacy is virtually non-existent. Political terrorism is the only game the muslims play well and they know it.

Ironically it was DeGaul and the French that helped bootstrap Israels nuke program.

[jeffg]

Kinda like when we revealed we had a mole within Al Qeda and Britain and others had to rush to make arrests since we jeopardized them... all to prove a point that intelligence to raise our alert level was valid.

I would like to hope Syria would not get involved, but seeing they are in multiple ways Iran's stepchild they would not pass up an oppty to hit isreal if Israel is down.

Egypt , like Turkey, are 2 Muslim countries that are wildcards. Both rcve weapons and support from the US, but as was apparent in Iraq II Turkey doenst do the US bidding even with a hefty bribe to come across their border. And how much influence would we have with them if Isreal and Iran go at it?

The middle east is a foreign policy persons dream. So many approaches, so many possibilities, and so many ways to debate it. Sadly it is that interesting. The cradle of civilization is now the cradle of anti-civilization
Maybe their dark age will end like it did for Christianity and reformation will happen within Islam.. and is it not ironic that a lot of the theories, teachings, and mathematics that came out of the middle east helped the western world in its climb to dominance. And now in some middle east countries the ban the same theories that their own people founded many many many moons ago.

[BLACK KNIGHT]

It's hard to hide a nuclear facility. We know from imagery where the targets are.
So much of this deserves a well laid out response, and I haven't the time right now, but here's a few thoughts to chew on.
1. What I don't have the stomach for is to watch New York and Washington vaporized by a couple of Iranian suitcase nukes handed off to Al Qaeda. You wanna discuss economic fallout, discuss that.
2. American foreign policy only has one mission- US security. Period. All others be damned if they interfere with that mission.
3. The Saudis distrust the Iranians more than we do.
4. U.S air superiority. The great equalizer. Think about it.
5. Back in the 80's, Libya had a little problem at one of their chemical weapons factories they bought from the Germans. They never got it on-line due to an "unfortunate" fire. That smells like a SEAL op if ever there was one- that's gotta be a textbook op. And the beauty was, we left no evidence we'd even been there. And it's never been proven to this day. It doesn't take an invasion to eliminate key facilities for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.

[Bob M]

US Israeli/Palistinian and oil policy is pushing us in that direction. We're the co-combatant in a holy war. These things usually end badly, that's why we are seeing our long-time allies back away and leave our war to us. We're still blinded by the tears of 9/11 and the illusion that we can unilaterally do anything we please. There will be more lessons to learn.

[jeffg]

I am more worried of suitcase nukes from Pakistan seeing we have never questions Khan on when, where and who he talked/sold technology too. We THINK he sold technology to N. Korea, Syria, Libya, possibly Saudi and another country that hasnt been named.
That scares me more than anything...because if musharrif (sp) is assasinated then who is left in power? Will the cooperate with the US? Will the sell technology to countries for money to buy arms from other countries?

Pakistan has the nuke and has been willing to sell the technology, yet again the US has yet to have even a private interview with the esteemed scientist to find out who he talked to. I would think that would warrant same if not more attention that Iran right now.

Security is tied to Economics. Without economic security we cannot pay, arm, and field an army at the minimum


[This message has been edited by jeffg (edited 10-06-2004).]

[This message has been edited by jeffg (edited 10-06-2004).]