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  • The Stock Market

    For those of you that delve into the world of stocks and bonds.....you certainly know that things have been good lately. Well......take a look at the following graph. Notice how today's market is tracking, when compared with the 1929 market. Could we be headed for a crash?



    Complete story here:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sca...ion-2014-02-11
    The Drifter

    The contents of this message might be totally inaccurate, misguided or otherwise perverse. If you are stupid enough to follow any of the tips listed here and mess up yourself or your equipment, I am absolved of all responsibility. The information contained herein is based on my personal experience and by no means constitutes the correct way to do it. Your mileage may vary.

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  • #2
    I have all of my money buried in pork futures. Bacon is always a good investment.

    PS: many safeguards exist today that did not exist in 1929. Not saying another super crash could not happen, but there are automatic "breakers" that are supposed to halt trading during panic selloffs. This way you get a more tempered adjustment versus a true market crash.
    Message sent from your mom's bedroom during pillow talk

    Buck Henry
    Simple Goat Herder
    Former NGTO President
    Hall of Fame Member

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    • #3
      Interesting....I have been watching my retirement and it has done pretty good the past 12 months, but has started dropping the past week or so.......

      May be time to settle back into something a little safer..........before I....
      BE DIFFERENT AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE! <

      Exodus 29:18
      Then burn the entire ram on the altar. It is a burnt offering to the LORD, a pleasing aroma, a food offering presented to the LORD. God loves BBQ!

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      • #4
        I read today that it was a slight correction that they have been expecting. It's not a full correction as the market did not drop enough points. With the market up nearly 20% in the last year a correction of 10 points is of little consequence. imop
        "I like beer, do you like beer, I like beer a lot."

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        • #5
          One of the most important factors that caused the "great depression" was not only the stock market, but that so many banks went "belly-up". Didn't have the federal insured funds that you have in place today.(I think funds are insured to $250k). My grand father was able to remove his money from the banks before they shut-down and never again put money in the bank. During the depression (he was a farmer so food was not a problem), he dealt with cash only and the "bartering system" for other necessities.. I think there is a song about a "country boy will survive"...

          Having said that, I transferred my account from "high risk" markets back during the stock market debacle in the 90's to secure funds. Don't get the highs, but also don't lose anything when it turns south... I don't have the personality to worry about stocks..

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          • #6
            insurance?

            Raptor, not sure what you mean by, "Didn't have the federal insured funds that you have in place today . . ." If by "funds" you mean cash money and the risk of losing it by fraud on the part of the entity where the cash is deposited, then yes, SPIC and FDIC programs are there for the investor's protection. But unless I'm missing something big here, there is no insurance for 'market risk' when you purchase a stock fund, bond fund, commodity fund . . . One can create a portfolio with varying risk esposures---but you can't eliminate completely market risk from the equation.
            SpeyBro

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            • #7
              Originally posted by SpeyBro View Post
              Raptor, not sure what you mean by, "Didn't have the federal insured funds that you have in place today . . ." If by "funds" you mean cash money and the risk of losing it by fraud on the part of the entity where the cash is deposited, then yes, SPIC and FDIC programs are there for the investor's protection. But unless I'm missing something big here, there is no insurance for 'market risk' when you purchase a stock fund, bond fund, commodity fund . . . One can create a portfolio with varying risk esposures---but you can't eliminate completely market risk from the equation.
              I was talking about the FDIC which was passed into law in 1933 (I think). Before then, if the bank "ran out of money"...then you were SOL...

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              • #8
                Stock Market vs. Economy

                I believe the stock market no longer reflects the actual economy anymore than a win streak in Vegas says you are a great gambler. The primary reason is that stocks bear no direct relationship to a company's actual net worth or value, but are a tool for speculators. Ask any corporate executive today what is the most important thing to the company? They will respond "Share Holder Value" which translates to stock price. Easiest way to do this is keeping large amounts of cash in hand driving up the speculative value so corporate and individual share holders see more $$$ on paper. This is where the biggest hole exists in their highway paved with gold because at some point the company has to invest in the business or go belly up. If multiple large corporations blow out at the same time the last recession will look mild in comparison. Another reflection of the very short view of today's CFOs.

                In the mid 1980s Equifax technology planners visited a company in Boston that had developed a very early version of on-line trading with a new system that predicted where any stock price would go. The technology was impressive and the company could have just ruled the market but they were actually selling this system. At one point in the afternoon, a senior aide walked into the executive conference where we were meeting with the company's President. A whispered conversation and the president said their system had just predicted a major decline/collapse and said this company should sell all their stocks immediately. The president approved the sale and the next day was when the market collapsed for the 1980s recession. That lesson has stayed with me. And it is one more reason why the stock market is a bogus economic indicator. There is no real concern for the value of the company, only the price of the stock and whether it's headed up or down.

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                • #9
                  Stock market advice and comments from a bunch of fishermen. hmmmm

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bigorangefan View Post
                    Stock market advice and comments from a bunch of fishermen. hmmmm
                    Don't forget the free legal and medical advice as well.
                    The Drifter

                    The contents of this message might be totally inaccurate, misguided or otherwise perverse. If you are stupid enough to follow any of the tips listed here and mess up yourself or your equipment, I am absolved of all responsibility. The information contained herein is based on my personal experience and by no means constitutes the correct way to do it. Your mileage may vary.

                    Follow me on Instagram

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by bigorangefan View Post
                      . . . from a bunch of fishermen. . .
                      I thought somethin' smelled a little fishy 'bout this.
                      Of course, one must consider that these are TROUT fishermen we're talkin' about. It's not like they're common bass fishermen or tightliners for catfish. We're talkin' 'bout a somewhat sophisticated crowd here.

                      Well. . . maybe we are. Now that I think about it, we are talkin' 'bout Georgians and other southern outdoorsmen.
                      If you have difficulty understanding the post above, read it out loud and it should make sense. This NGTO member is known for his poor hill-billy upbringing and his affinity for all things from Louisiana (particularly if it relates to LSU). It makes for a poor mix of accents and much difficulty in translation. He was doing well for so long, but now seems to have regressed.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bigorangefan View Post
                        Stock market advice and comments from a bunch of fishermen. hmmmm
                        Why not! We are all freakin lawyers around here too.
                        Message sent from your mom's bedroom during pillow talk

                        Buck Henry
                        Simple Goat Herder
                        Former NGTO President
                        Hall of Fame Member

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Swamp Angel View Post
                          I thought somethin' smelled a little fishy 'bout this.
                          Of course, one must consider that these are TROUT fishermen we're talkin' about. It's not like they're common bass fishermen or tightliners for catfish. We're talkin' 'bout a somewhat sophisticated crowd here.

                          Well. . . maybe we are. Now that I think about it, we are talkin' 'bout Georgians and other southern outdoorsmen.
                          Just like Lehman Brothers...
                          KCFO

                          I am sorry to disappoint you all, but the awesome mullet in my avatar is not real.

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                          • #14
                            I'm just waiting for Mr. Beeks to deliver the report on orange juice futures.
                            “There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot.” - Aldo Leopold

                            Concede parum, nega frequenter, distingue semper - St. Thomas Aquinas

                            'Stand by the roads, and look and ask for the ancient paths, where the good way is and walk in it, and find rest for your souls'. Jeremiah 6:16

                            "Wonder is the desire for knowledge" - St. Thomas Aquinas

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                            • #15
                              Short Selling

                              I would add that in addition to the market "safeguards", and the banking protections / insurance, short sales make a huge precipitous decline less likely.

                              I used to really struggle with this, as I traded quite a bit at one time. But once I realized the supply-demand side of a short sale, I started to feel OK with it.

                              Now before everyone cringes from the evil of the day trader, think about it...short selling creates near-term buying pressure as the traders that sold short have to buy to cover their sale, which in turn creates demand for the stock, heading off a really precipitous decline. I am no expert but it does occur, and all those trying to cover their losses (or preserve their gains) by selling off in a decline at the highest possible price, prevents the evil day trader from driving the price down even further in the quest to make rapacious riches on his/her short sale. There is a yin to every yang.
                              Last edited by FishnHuntnNut; 02-12-14, 12:17 PM. Reason: spell
                              KCFO

                              I am sorry to disappoint you all, but the awesome mullet in my avatar is not real.

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