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Old 04-16-17, 08:46 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Da's Fishing View Post
Assuming we did manage a regime change, how long would it take to deprogram the entire country?

DD F
Being a Korean American myself and researching the politics of the Korean Peninsula extensively I would say that it would not take as long as you might think. The general people of NK are simple people who understand the progression of the rest of the world. This is helped by South Korean balloon drops of media that show how advanced the world is and the smuggling of other such media through China which is popular among NK as all of their media is controlled by the state. They understand that they are lightyears behind the rest of the world and they do not have it "good".

That being said, it is not the question of reversing the brain washing that is the big question, it is how South Korea could accommodate a large influx of unskilled workers who do not have the very basic skills that are necessary for a job in the 21st century. Skills such as adequate computer competency, use of a subway or bus system, or even managing taxes. The cost of educating a huge population with such basic skills is a huge turn off for any reunification. Also, if there were a regime change, who would foot the bill per say to add in the infrastructure and other necessary governmental facilities that would legitimize any form of government.
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Old 04-16-17, 09:05 PM   #22
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Old 04-16-17, 09:20 PM   #23
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Thanks for the informative thoughts on this subject. I hadn't gotten to thinking about rebuilding the country to a status near South Korea.

DD F


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Originally Posted by DoubleRainbow View Post
Being a Korean American myself and researching the politics of the Korean Peninsula extensively I would say that it would not take as long as you might think. The general people of NK are simple people who understand the progression of the rest of the world. This is helped by South Korean balloon drops of media that show how advanced the world is and the smuggling of other such media through China which is popular among NK as all of their media is controlled by the state. They understand that they are lightyears behind the rest of the world and they do not have it "good".

That being said, it is not the question of reversing the brain washing that is the big question, it is how South Korea could accommodate a large influx of unskilled workers who do not have the very basic skills that are necessary for a job in the 21st century. Skills such as adequate computer competency, use of a subway or bus system, or even managing taxes. The cost of educating a huge population with such basic skills is a huge turn off for any reunification. Also, if there were a regime change, who would foot the bill per say to add in the infrastructure and other necessary governmental facilities that would legitimize any form of government.
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Old 04-17-17, 08:44 AM   #24
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Also, the fact that I am in LA for another month before I come back for the summer makes me worried bc we are his first target. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7545011.html
DR, I would not worry in the least about being in LA, at least when it comes to N Korea's aggression.

I am in the AF and have spent two years in (South) Korea- not sure if I mentioned that earlier in the thread. I have participated in Key Resolve, one of the large annual exercises that always pisses off the North, and I was lucky to play an important role at a high level of the exercise, so I was privy to a lot of interesting briefings and information.

As such, and based on my experience in Korea/PACOM (also spent 5 years in Japan), I would not worry about anything until the US starts evacuating military families from South Korea. There are several bases there that allow us to bring our families out. I have a buddy who's going on his second year at Osan (within artillery range of the DMZ) w/ his wife and daughters. At the first plausible sign of danger or provocation that we cannot de-escalate, those families will be on every plane, helicopter, train, bus going south to either Daegu, or Busan, then Japan and later home to the US of A.

Notice I said De-escalation? For as long as I've been in (14yrs), this has always been the #1 priority of any and all positions of power in the region.

Yes, we could make a first strike, and we would mop the floor with little Kim's face. It would be measured in hours, not days.
HOWEVER, this would be a complete disaster for the people of Seoul and Incheon. The population of South Korea is around 50 million last time I checked, and like 2/3 of that is around those two cities, both of which are right at the doorstep to the DMZ. There are so many cannons, missiles, rockets, and tanks pointed that way, at the first sign of danger, the north will pull the trigger and just make it nasty.
This is precisely why we have to tread lightly.
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Old 04-17-17, 08:49 AM   #25
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DR, I just saw your post about the obstacles to reunification, great post!
In addition to that, China has their own agenda to avoid reunification, they likely don't want a US ally right at their border, which would happen in this situation.
The three superpowers that would be hurt the most by the burden of reunification would be China, South Korea, and the US because of our mutual interests in the region, combined with our likely involvement in the event.

We're looking at 10 to 15 million unskilled and relatively uneducated people up there. Poor infrastructure. They would be a massive burden on the local level for China and South Korea, and it would take years if not decades for the whole region to recover.
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Old 04-17-17, 02:10 PM   #26
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For all of you old enough to remember when NK seized the USS Pueblo in 1968, I found this item while browsing Google Maps on North Korea. Looks like the NK's turned the ship into a museum in Pyongyang:

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0405...!7i5376!8i2688

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0403...!7i5376!8i2688

ETA: Read the Wiki article. Great stuff in there about how the crew and captain managed to tell the NK's to bugger off multiple times.

ETA2: And it's not just the US that NK has tried to extort over the years. The Soviets too:

Quote:
Given that Chinese and North Korean archives surrounding the incident remain secret, Kim Il Sung's intentions cannot be known with certainty. The Soviets revealed however that Kim sent a letter to Alexei Kosygin on 31 January 1968 demanding further military and economic aid, which was interpreted by the Soviets as the price they would have to pay to restrain Kim's bellicosity. Consequently, Kim was personally invited to Moscow, but he refused to go in person owing to "increased defense preparations" he had to personally attend to, sending instead his defense minister, Kim Ch’ang-bong, who arrived on 26 February 1968. During a long meeting with Brezhnev, the Soviet leader made it clear that they were not willing to go to war with the United States, but agreed to an increase in subsidies for the DPRK, which did happen in subsequent years.[34]
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Last edited by Trout8myfly; 04-17-17 at 02:30 PM.
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Old 04-17-17, 02:14 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trout8myfly View Post
For all of you old enough to remember when NK seized the USS Pueblo in 1968, I found this item while browsing Google Maps on North Korea. Looks like a little museum in Pyongyang:

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0405...!7i5376!8i2688

ETA: Read the Wiki article. Great stuff in there about how the crew and captain managed to tell the NK's to bugger off multiple times.


George....wasn't their a movie made about the Pueblo incident?
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Old 04-17-17, 02:40 PM   #28
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Yes, had forgotten that. With Hal Holbrook playing Captain Bucher:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070573/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
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Old 04-17-17, 04:36 PM   #29
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For someone who considers himself a fly fisherman, Buck Henry is pretty good at...

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Old 04-17-17, 05:16 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iso1600 View Post
DR, I would not worry in the least about being in LA, at least when it comes to N Korea's aggression.

I am in the AF and have spent two years in (South) Korea- not sure if I mentioned that earlier in the thread. I have participated in Key Resolve, one of the large annual exercises that always pisses off the North, and I was lucky to play an important role at a high level of the exercise, so I was privy to a lot of interesting briefings and information.

As such, and based on my experience in Korea/PACOM (also spent 5 years in Japan), I would not worry about anything until the US starts evacuating military families from South Korea. There are several bases there that allow us to bring our families out. I have a buddy who's going on his second year at Osan (within artillery range of the DMZ) w/ his wife and daughters. At the first plausible sign of danger or provocation that we cannot de-escalate, those families will be on every plane, helicopter, train, bus going south to either Daegu, or Busan, then Japan and later home to the US of A.

Notice I said De-escalation? For as long as I've been in (14yrs), this has always been the #1 priority of any and all positions of power in the region.

Yes, we could make a first strike, and we would mop the floor with little Kim's face. It would be measured in hours, not days.
HOWEVER, this would be a complete disaster for the people of Seoul and Incheon. The population of South Korea is around 50 million last time I checked, and like 2/3 of that is around those two cities, both of which are right at the doorstep to the DMZ. There are so many cannons, missiles, rockets, and tanks pointed that way, at the first sign of danger, the north will pull the trigger and just make it nasty.
This is precisely why we have to tread lightly.
Thank you for your service iso! Koreans very much so appreciate it even though some SK citizens want to whine and complain about trivial nonsense that the US bases "cause". Without y'all I'd suspect another Korean War or a Chinese invasion (pretty much synonymous at this point).

You are right that there is not much to worry on the homefront of NK attacks, but I am a cautious person and don't like the feeling that an unpredictable leader is targeting the very city I am residing in right now.

I also agree on your knowledge about NK artillery positions and numbers. Seoul and many of the other populous cities in SK are within range of the obsolete, yet dangerous artillery pieces that NK possess. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that NK has one of the largest numbers of artillery weapons and positions in the world. What provides me with a little bit of hope is that the U.S. and SK went through with deploying the THAAD missile defense system in SK, much like the Israeli Missile Defense System.

In regards to wiping Kim Jong Un within hours, I hope that is true, but I know NK is a mountainous region where it would be hard to penetrate without sending in ground troops or using nuclear weapons. We can cross out nukes as a first strike for obvious reasons such as proximity to China and SK, and sending in ground troops would be a long, hard fought battle. Most of the bases and strongholds in NK are in mountains with their entrances facing north and near the Chinese border, so to even hit them effectively the pilots would have to cross dangerously near the Chinese border then turn around and hit them. We can only hope for an assassination or catching him off guard and hoping the snake will die if its head is cut off.
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