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Old 04-17-17, 06:36 PM   #31
Sighter
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DR, I just saw your post about the obstacles to reunification, great post!
In addition to that, China has their own agenda to avoid reunification, they likely don't want a US ally right at their border, which would happen in this situation.
The three superpowers that would be hurt the most by the burden of reunification would be China, South Korea, and the US because of our mutual interests in the region, combined with our likely involvement in the event.

We're looking at 10 to 15 million unskilled and relatively uneducated people up there. Poor infrastructure. They would be a massive burden on the local level for China and South Korea, and it would take years if not decades for the whole region to recover.
Yes China doesn't want reunification due to those very reasons. Also Japan would slightly voice for not reunifying Korea also even if it means having a buffer to communism. Both countries would not want this because...

China would not want a democratic nation with American Support right on their border as you have mentioned. And also, a reunified Korea would lead to an enormous growth of economic power within the region after the exhaustive cost of reeducation and building infrastructure as NK is rich in natural resources that SK does not have, and SK has the technological and economic capital to convert such resources into finished goods. In terms of military, though NK does not have the equipment of a modern army, the men serve 10 years of mandatory military service and the woman serve for a few years less, but the main point is everyone has military capabilities. South Korea also has a mandatory 2 year enlistment for all men and possess a highly capable military force. Unified, this would lead to a pretty capable military force after a few years of restructuring. Both populations are still Korean and observe the same culture, language, and history. United, I believe many of the powers in the region would feel threatened militarily and economically.

Japan would share similar concerns economically and militarily, but they have different reasons to fear this. Japan brutally occupied Korea, China, etc. during the early and mid 1900's and have yet to truly reconcile and apologize to such nations. This, along with territorial island disputes with SK would be tipped in SK's favor if they reunified as Korea would have more military capabilities to counter the strong Air force and Navy of Japan, yet relatively limited SDF ground troops of Japan (conditions after their loss in WW2).

Overall, reunification may cause the powder keg in Asia to erupt once again once the arduous process of reeducation and building of infrastructure is done. As much as I would love to see the reunification of the Korean people, I do not believe any other super power would be warm to the idea. This is a tragedy, but it is the way the world works.
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Old 04-17-17, 07:07 PM   #32
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DR; I really appreciate your insightful and informed posts in this thread. If you have not already noticed, I like to have a little fun around here from time to time and making fun of the current NK leader is certainly easy pickings. But in your opinion, is he really as crazy and stupid as everyone thinks? If not, then what is his end game with all of this? Certainly he must know if he lobs a nuke at anyone, it will not end well for him.

I think the US and others are in a tough position with this guy. If we simply continue to shrug off his "I will nuke you" threats and he ends up killing millions, then there will be hell to pay. And if we decide to take his threats seriously and do a preemptive strike on his nuclear capabilities, there will also be hell to pay. It really is a Kobayashi Maru scenario! I really wish the NK people would rise up and take care of their situation on their own. They must live in complete fear to remain as oppressed as they appear to be.
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Old 04-17-17, 07:31 PM   #33
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DR; I really appreciate your insightful and informed posts in this thread. If you have not already noticed, I like to have a little fun around here from time to time and making fun of the current NK leader is certainly easy pickings. But in your opinion, is he really as crazy and stupid as everyone thinks? If not, then what is his end game with all of this? Certainly he must know if he lobs a nuke at anyone, it will not end well for him.

I think the US and others are in a tough position with this guy. If we simply continue to shrug off his "I will nuke you" threats and he ends up killing millions, then there will be hell to pay. And if we decide to take his threats seriously and do a preemptive strike on his nuclear capabilities, there will also be hell to pay. It really is a Kobayashi Maru scenario! I really wish the NK people would rise up and take care of their situation on their own. They must live in complete fear to remain as oppressed as they appear to be.
Oh trust me I love making fun of the maniacal leader too
In my honest opinion he is truly as crazy as everyone thinks he is. As for the stupid part, I'd say that is a yes and no. He is stupid in the sense that he doesn't reform North Korea slowly and surely to a more free market system like China has to improve his economy. He is stupid in the sense that he still believes that most of the NK population has a very high opinion of his family dynasty. He is stupid to put all his money into a lacking military rather than food when there is an understanding that there really isn't a HUGE immediate threat to his country until now. Which brings me to his other stupidity, revamping the nuclear missile program instead of taking the food aid given to his country by Western powers on the condition he doesn't do any more nuclear testing.

He IS smart in the ways of controlling an entire population and his cabinet under an iron fist. He assassinates and murders countless people who have "wronged" or "disrespected" him to instill fear and discourage a rebellion. Examples include, executing a member of his cabinet with an anti aircraft gun and forcing everyone to watch it personally or by news broadcast, executing a general for sleeping during a personal briefing delivered by Kim, and even assassinating his own brother who has "embarrassed" him by traveling to other countries such as Japan, etc. (Also doesn't help that this brother was supposed to be the rightful heir to the throne). Throw this in with concentration camps for anyone who speaks out against him or tries to leave the country and you have the controlled NK we see today.

In terms of the end game, I say the safest option would be for the US, SK, or someone in NK to assassinate him and privately negotiate with someone in power to lead a rebellion beforehand to take control of the gov't in his absence. This is the only way to end the regime with the least amount of consequences and loss of lives. If the US can also catch him off guard with a well placed drone or airstrike to eliminate him and his cabinet this might also work, but with less certainty. Other than this, there are limited options without some country having to pay the price in a lot of blood.

The time is ticking where NK will somehow keep building its nuclear capabilities and actually be successful if testing continues, so I am guessing something big will happen in NK in the near future. With growing unpopularity of the US on the world stage (Syria, Afghanistan, etc.) who isn't to say Pakistan, Russia, or China wouldn't give NK the full procedure on how to build the bomb just so they can add another threat towards US and curb its global expansion?
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Old 04-17-17, 08:27 PM   #34
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assassinate him and privately negotiate with someone in power to lead a rebellion beforehand to take control of the gov't in his absence.
I totally agree with you here. Any large conflict in the region would be too messy, and I don't see any way that there will be a peaceful reunification w/o Kim Jong Un getting "disappeared" himself.
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Old 04-18-17, 09:51 AM   #35
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I think an overthrow of the chubster by the NK people is unlikely. North Korea has been under a long series of repressive communist governments; this one is just the most recent. You now have multiple generations come and gone since the last sniff of democracy could be found in N Korea. The people do not know what freedom is so they would be uprising to an unknown objective. Not likely.
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Old 04-18-17, 11:43 AM   #36
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Hopefully the chubby kid is taking copious notes.
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Old 04-19-17, 12:26 AM   #37
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I can't find it on the google but apparently Kim Jong Uns dad had the largest DVD collection in the world and was also Hennessy cognacs largest(volume)client(his dad was a lot slimmer). I think it's dangerous to assume that all North Koreans will roll over and take an invasion as a welcome change. Id imagine it would be an extremely complicated political process. I mean, imagine if a foreign power took us over on November 7 2016. At the 49 to 51 split we've had the past 16 years that'd make people think hard about their allegiances. My point being it's not like the nazis invading France/Western Europe in the 30s then the allies liberating the country. It's more like freeing a kid napping victim from their entire life in a bunker, they don't know what is happening. This is of course my expert opinion as someone with no knowledge on the subject whatsoever


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Old 04-20-17, 04:12 PM   #38
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Old 04-20-17, 07:59 PM   #39
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love it
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Old 04-20-17, 11:04 PM   #40
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My trigger discipline has been really good on this one, dontcha think?
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